Horizons

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The energy transition is complex, and it can be hard to know where to turn for information. If you’re a leader, a decision maker, or someone that has a stake in the future of energy and natural resources, then join us on Horizons, a podcast from Wood Mackenzie that explores the world of tomorrow. We'll explore the themes shaping the energy and natural resources landscape, bringing you crucial insights, new perspectives and bold forecasts.

One Giant Leap: President Biden's Vision For Repowering America

US President Joe Biden has set a transformative goal of achieving net zero in the US power sector by 2035. Ahead of the goal of net zero in the broader economy by 2050, this highly ambitious target comes on the heels of Europe's net zero emissions target and the UN Climate Change Conference in November. Can the US meet its mandate? Technological limitations, policy design, market structures and even the political and constitutional foundations of the United States create roadblocks that will impede the pace of progress. It will take enormous effort to achieve, but the process of meeting the goals will bring about major change in the US market that will help lower global carbon emissions.

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The Blue-Green Planet: How Hydrogen Can Transform The Global Energy Trade

Electrification is at the heart of the changing energy mix on the road to net zero, but it can only take the world so far. Heavy-duty industries like shipping and aviation will need fuel alternatives, and that’s where hydrogen comes in. Hydrogen is a viable clean energy alternative, and countries are starting to prepare for global adoption.

In this episode we examine the trends in the renewable energy market and what they mean for the future of energy. We’ll look at how alternative fuels such as hydrogen will be utilised in the future, and we’ll explore how hydrogen supply chains will need to be formed to supply the world.

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Plastic Surgery: Reshaping the Profile of the Plastics Industry

Plastic is the miracle material of the modern world. Production has surged more than 1,000% over the past 50 years, thanks to its near-infinite flexibility as a material, its cost effectiveness and scalability. However, the ubiquity of plastic and its carbon-intensive feedstocks are a major barrier standing in the way of a net-zero world.

Just as the human body can't sustain itself on a diet of junk food, the current consumption model was bound to cause problems. Low-cost, disposable materials that are near impervious to breakdown in nature were always going to fur up the planet’s arteries in the form of waste, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, air pollution and water consumption.

In this episode of Horizons, Dr Liz Dennett is joined by Dr Lars Borger from Neste, and Guy Bailey from Wood Mackenzie to put the plastic industry under the microscope. How can we create a sustainable plastic value chain? What are the issues with biodegradability? How do new materials hinder recycling efforts? These questions and more are explored in episode 3 of Horizons, from Wood Mackenzie.

Find out more about Neste here: https://www.neste.com/sustainability

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No Pain, No Gain: The Economic Consequences of Accelerating the Energy Transition

Limiting climate warming to a global average of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels is imperative if the environmental and humanitarian crises wrought by extreme temperature increases are to be avoided.

In this episode, Dr Liz Dennett is joined by Monique Motty, Master of Public Administration Candidate, Edward Mason fellow and Louis & Gabrielle Bacon environmental leadership fellow at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government. Monique has worked internationally as a technical expert over the past decade on projects and policies focused on climate technologies, clean energy transition, and green finance mostly in African countries. She worked for a multilateral development bank, an international think tank, a national forest entity, and various UN agencies.

Also on the show: Peter Martin, Director of Macroeconomics at Wood Mackenzie. Peter has a Masters with Honours in Economics from the University of Glasgow, as well as an MSc in Economic Management & Policy at Strathclyde Business School. Responsible for producing Wood Mackenzie’s macroeconomic outlook to 2050, Peter is experienced in forecasting key macroeconomic metrics such as GDP, Industrial Production, FX and inflation.

Accelerating the energy transition is essential. In doing so, there'll be winners and losers when it comes to GDP.

An accelerated transition could however pay off in the end, in economic terms. It is likely to lead to stronger economic growth rates for some economies beyond 2030, enabling losses to be recouped before the end of the century. That is the essence of transition economics – short-term pain for (very) long-term gain.

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Power Play: How China’s Boom Year Is Changing The Course Of The Energy Transition

Solar and wind (supported by battery storage) are attracting the lion’s share of near-term energy transition investment. Costs for both have tumbled over the past decade as manufacturing capacity has exploded.

But 2021 reversed this as solar module prices rose by as much as a quarter last year, while wind turbine prices grew 10-15%. Battery costs will rise in 2022 for the first time in a decade.

Record commodity and transport costs, raw-material supply constraints and logistical bottlenecks are the culprits, Rising costs have led developers to consider delays or cancellations tapping the breaks on the growth of renewables just as many countries commit more ambitious emissions reductions.

China’s renewables manufacturers and project developers emerged from 2021 bigger and more competitive than ever before as power demand drive investment to record levels. Building more, faster and cheaper than anyone else, China has become the Ikea of the energy transition.

In February's Horizons podcast, Dr Liz Dennett is joined by Andy Klump, the founder and CEO of Clean Energy Associates. Andy has over 20 years' experience in high tech renewable sectors, 18 of which are in solar PV.

Also on the show: Alex Whitworth - Head of Asia Pacific Power & Renewables Research at Wood Mackenzie. Alex has over 10 years’ experience in the energy industry in China and Asia, including roles at McKinsey, GE and IHS Markit.

February’s Horizons podcast identifies what has driven this growth in China’s renewables, how sustainable it is likely to prove and how countries and companies can respond.

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Utility 3.0 - How Africa Is Remaking The Grid

The future of energy is electric. As the world strides towards net zero amid unrelenting climate change, electricity networks will become even more critical to the modern economy.

Nearly 800 million people globally live without access to any electricity, three-quarters of them in Sub-Saharan Africa. Almost half of the world’s population lives without ‘reasonably reliable’ access to power, with frequent outages interrupting their daily lives.

Sub-Saharan Africa has a persistent lack of electricity access in part due to massive underinvestment in electricity infrastructure. Most of its public electric utilities are loss-making, with limited ability to maintain existing assets or invest in new ones. This hampers top-down growth in power supply and improvements in the availability, reliability and affordability of power.

In adversity lies opportunity. Wood Mackenzie estimates that achieving universal electricity access in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2030 presents a US$350 billion opportunity, nearly one-fifth of it off the grid. Decentralised, bottom-up, solar-and-storage grids could not only reshape Africa’s energy future but carry important lessons for the next generation of thinking on utility business models globally.

In this, the March edition of Horizons, Dr Liz Dennett is joined by William Brent and Benjamin Attia. William is Chief Marketing Officer at Husk Power Systems. Husk is an advanced energy services company that accelerates access to clean, modern and affordable electricity in Africa and Asia, by developing and operating renewable energy minigrids. Benjamin Attia, author of this month’s Horizons report, and Senior Research Analyst at Wood Mackenzie, explores the future of energy in Africa and explain Wood Mac’s ‘Utility 3.0’ tool for analyzing infrastructure.

As demand grows in Sub-Saharan Africa, how they respond to it will fundamentally reshape the trajectory of global electricity demand. The evolution of the utility business model is an essential piece in the energy transition puzzle. Decentralised, bottom-up, solar-and-storage grids could not only reshape Africa’s energy future, but carry important lessons for utility business models around the world.

Read the report and listen to our other Horizons podcasts at https://www.woodmac.com/horizons/

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Security Alert: Five Lessons From The Energy Crisis

The crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the most significant shock to world energy markets since the Arab oil embargo and OPEC price rises of 1973-74. Like the crisis of the early 1970s, it is forcing a fundamental rethink of the outlook for energy, as governments and businesses reassess their views of Russia’s role as a supplier to the world.

As in the 1970s, the immediate crisis has been years in the making. Energy demand increases post-Covid combined with a series of disruptions to supply, helped drive up the prices of oil, gas, coal and power.

The big difference from the 1970s is that, today, the world is trying simultaneously to address another problem: the threat of catastrophic climate change. To achieve the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to within 1.5 °C from pre-industrial levels, global greenhouse gas emissions need to start falling now and drop to net zero by 2050.

In this edition of Horizons, we explore five lessons that can be learned from the recent upheavals in energy markets.

Regular host Dr Liz Dennett is joined by 3 distinguished guests: Amy Myers-Jaffe, Research Professor and Managing Director of the Climate Policy Lab, Prakash Sharma, Vice-President, Multi-Commodity Research at Wood Mackenzie, and Massimo Di-Odoardo, Vice-President, Gas and LNG Research at Wood Mac.

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Sea Change: Navigating The Trillion-Dollar Offshore Wind Opportunity

Offshore wind is poised to become one of the key technologies powering the decarbonisation of the global economy. The technology is proven, and investors and policy makers have confidence in it.

It’s a US$ 1 trillion opportunity – that amount is predicted to flow into offshore wind projects over the next decade. Costs fell 50% between 2015 and 2020 and are expected to fall further. Total installed capacity is likely to increase from 35GW in 2020 to 330 GW in 2030.

Offshore wind is one of the lowest CO2 emitting renewable technologies per KWh, but there are opportunities to reduce this; the environmental impact of the turbines is also an issue to be addressed.

In this episode: we look at why offshore wind provides such an opportunity, the criteria for tenders to be awarded in various markets, and the role offshore wind will play in the energy transition alongside hydrogen and solar.

Host Liz Dennett is joined by Ricardo Rocha from BayWA, Michel Kurstjens from Sif Group, and Horizons report author Søren Lassen - Head of Offshore Wind Research at Wood Mackenzie.

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The Big Ban: Global Commodities in a Post-Ukraine-War World

War has catapulted energy security to the very top of the political agenda. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a geopolitical quake, the shockwaves of which will be felt for decades.

What are the consequences of the war for commodities? How can governments, companies and investors respond to the changing energy landscape? How will they react to investment opportunities opening up even as costs rise at unprecedented rates?

On the podcast: we discuss how the war has reshaped the commodities world. Energy trade flows are being transformed, investment in new LNG supply looks more compelling and the pace and, crucially, cost of the energy transition is changing.

Joining regular host Liz Dennett are Derek Brower, US Energy Editor at the Financial Times, Massimo Di-Odoardo, Vice President, Gas and LNG Research at Wood Mackenzie, and Ann-Louise Hittle, Vice President, Oils Research at Wood Mackenzie.

Read the report here: https://www.woodmac.com/horizons/

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